{"id":1039,"date":"2025-09-21T18:59:59","date_gmt":"2025-09-21T16:59:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/staatskunde.org\/?p=1039"},"modified":"2025-09-21T19:00:01","modified_gmt":"2025-09-21T17:00:01","slug":"velocitat-de-propagacio-i-index-de-creixement-potencial-de-la-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/?p=1039","title":{"rendered":"Velocitat de propagaci\u00f3 i \u00edndex de creixement potencial de la COVID-19"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Arag\u00f3 casos totals<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L&#8217;Universitat Polit\u00e8tnica de Catalunya t\u00e9 publicat un document on s&#8217;expliquen aquests termes <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Avaluaci\u00f3 del risc epidemiol\u00f2gic en la pand\u00e8mia de Covid<\/strong><strong>\u2010<\/strong><strong>19<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>La velocitat de propagaci\u00f3 de la malaltia (<\/strong>\ud835\udf46\ud835\udfd5<strong>)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En epidemiologia matem\u00e0tica cl\u00e0ssica s\u2019utilitza la velocitat reproductiva efectiva\u00a0\ud835\udc45 per mesurar la velocitat amb qu\u00e8 es propaga una epid\u00e8mia. \u00c9s una mesura del nombre mitj\u00e0 de persones infectades per una persona infecciosa. Sovint es parla de\u00a0\ud835\udc45 (velocitat reproductiva b\u00e0sica), que \u00e9s el valor de\u00a0\ud835\udc45 abans de que s\u2019inici\u00ef la propagaci\u00f3. Per calcular\u00a0\ud835\udc45  normalment s\u2019utilitzen models matem\u00e0tics com el SIR o el SEIR. Probablement no s\u00f3n models adequats en aquesta epid\u00e8mia on la din\u00e0mica epidemiol\u00f2gica ve determinada per les mesures de control (confinament, tancament de regions, conscienciaci\u00f3 de la poblaci\u00f3,&#8230;).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Per avaluar la velocitat de propagaci\u00f3 hem optat per una mesura emp\u00edrica, la&nbsp;<em>Rho&nbsp;<\/em>(\ud835\udf0c), que definim com el quocient entre la mitjana dels infectats els darrers tres dies envers els infectats de cinc dies enrere, tamb\u00e9 com a mitjana de tres dies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"307\" height=\"78\" src=\"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/captura-de-pantalla-2020-09-22-a-les-12.07.12.png?w=307\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1043\" srcset=\"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/captura-de-pantalla-2020-09-22-a-les-12.07.12.png 307w, https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/captura-de-pantalla-2020-09-22-a-les-12.07.12-300x76.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 307px) 100vw, 307px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Per minimitzar les oscil\u2219lacions setmanals d\u2019aquesta variable utilitzem la mitjana de 7 dies&nbsp;\ud835\udf0c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"566\" height=\"55\" src=\"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/captura-de-pantalla-2020-09-22-a-les-12.07.27.png?w=566\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1045\" srcset=\"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/captura-de-pantalla-2020-09-22-a-les-12.07.27.png 566w, https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/captura-de-pantalla-2020-09-22-a-les-12.07.27-300x29.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 566px) 100vw, 566px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>El nombre de persones infeccioses (IA14)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si coneixem&nbsp;<em>p7 <\/em>tenim un \u00edndex que ens mesura el nombre de persones que s\u2019infecten per cada persona infecciosa. Si sab\u00e9ssim el nombre de persones infeccioses, el producte dels dos valors ens informaria sobre el nombre de possibles nous infectats. No sabem directament el nombre de persones infeccioses a dia d\u2019avui, per\u00f2 sabem que est\u00e0 relacionat amb el nombre de persones que han estat diagnosticades els darrers 14 dies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aquest nombre s\u2019utilitza com a un \u00edndex de la poblaci\u00f3 infecciosa. Per fer\u2010ho comparable per diferents regions utilitzarem el nombre de persones que han emmalaltit els darrers 14 dies per 100.000 habitants (\ud835\udc3c\ud835\udc34<em>14<\/em>, Incid\u00e8ncia Acumulada dels darrers 14 dies).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>L\u2019\u00cdndex de creixement potencial (EPG)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El producte de&nbsp;<em>p7<\/em> per&nbsp;\ud835\udc3c\ud835\udc34<em>14<\/em> \u00e9s un \u00edndex que mesura els possibles nous casos diagnosticables els propers 14 dies, i estar\u00e0 relacionat amb la probabilitat d\u2019aparici\u00f3 de nous brots epid\u00e8mics. Aquest producte l\u2019anomenem \u00edndex de creixement potencial (EPG)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"155\" height=\"37\" src=\"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/captura-de-pantalla-2020-09-22-a-les-12.07.40.png?w=155\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1047\" srcset=\"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/captura-de-pantalla-2020-09-22-a-les-12.07.40.png 155w, https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/captura-de-pantalla-2020-09-22-a-les-12.07.40-150x37.png 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 155px) 100vw, 155px\" \/><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"963\" height=\"527\" src=\"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/untitled.png?w=963\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1050\" srcset=\"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/untitled.png 963w, https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/untitled-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/untitled-768x420.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 963px) 100vw, 963px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Arag\u00f3 casos totals L&#8217;Universitat Polit\u00e8tnica de Catalunya t\u00e9 publicat un document on s&#8217;expliquen aquests termes Avaluaci\u00f3 del risc epidemiol\u00f2gic en la pand\u00e8mia de Covid\u201019 La velocitat de propagaci\u00f3 de la malaltia (\ud835\udf46\ud835\udfd5) En epidemiologia matem\u00e0tica cl\u00e0ssica s\u2019utilitza la velocitat reproductiva efectiva\u00a0\ud835\udc45 per mesurar la velocitat amb qu\u00e8 es propaga una epid\u00e8mia. \u00c9s una mesura del [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kadence_starter_templates_imported_post":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1039","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1039","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1039"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1039\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2630,"href":"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1039\/revisions\/2630"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/belluguet.cat\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}